What fuel?

[t-tony]

Just read this on MSN, what do you think?

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/cars/news/...expert-claims/ar-AADMLCQ?li=AAnZ9Ug&ocid=iehp

11 years away, are things going to change that quickly?

Tony.

 

[andyglym]

Unless electric can become viable (miles away) then something else needs to step up so possibly. Electric is a cottage industry as it stands today.

 

[gookah]

However, all the top manufacturers are going electric, that is where their investment is.

Electric is VHS, hydrogen is Betamax,..... better, but I believe, wont happen in any large numbers.

all electric cars, from manufacturers now or very soon

Jaguar I-Pace
Kia e-Niro
Hyundai Kona Electric
Tesla Model S
Nissan Leaf
Volkswagen e-Golf
Audi e-tron
BMW i3 and i8
Tesla Model X
BMW Mini
Vauxhall Corsa
Renault Zoe


there will be many more, and from every manufacturer,
Battery range is getting better, and charging points are getting less far apart, and quicker to charge.

flat screen TV's were out of most people price ranges at one time, video recorders were £800 back in the 70's, eventually they became £29.99 from Asda
Technology moves fast, and that rate of change is moving faster than ever before nowadays.

 

[Pingu]

I think hydrogen will be like diesel, but much cleaner.

All trucks and buses will use it and a few cars. Diesel was trucks, buses and taxis.

The rest of the world will see the advantages and switch over, but it will take a few decades.

Electric is a stop-gap until hydrogen becomes the fuel of the future.

I think I'll see a majority electric car world, but I'll pop my clogs before hydrogen takes over.

 

[Robert Wiles]

Interesting article that faces up to the limitations of battery power. I think that we'll ultimately end up with a mixture of electric and hydrogen fuelled vehicles. Honda produced a viable hydrogen fuel cell car for use in California some years ago. The problem was the lack of infrastructure for re-fuelling, much like the current issue with the lack of EV charging points in the UK.

I also reckon there could well be a big bombshell coming once the full lifecycle environmental effects of EV batteries become more widely publicised. The environmental damage caused by the mining of the rare minerals needed to make them is one thing, but how will end of life batteries be disposed of once there are millions of them out there?

The batteries from first generation EVs like the Nissan Leaf will soon be nearing the end of their useful life. They may well have to be sent to licensed 'recycling' centres, but scrap always works it's way down the value chain and the control gets lost - just like 'recycled' UK plastic waste ending up on tips in Malaysia.

I'm just glad there'll still be petrol around long enough to see me out.....

 

[pgunter]

Interesting thoughts from you all.

One thing they do not tell you though is the range drops as you use the batteries. A neighbour has a Nissan Leaf.. two issues he’s had.. the battery range was dropping to less than 60 miles in a three year old car.. and then someone rear ended him.. the car had to be assessed for damage including the batteries. Which were not covered as they were nearly £2k to replace the whole set. Just in case one had a crack in it. The only way the car could go back on the road. The insurance from the other side argued that the batteries were damaged before the accident. So in the future, how many of these cars will be written off because of such ? How much will the insurance be and how soon before they are targets for thieves because of the value of the batteries ?

On another note, @Oldguysrule and myself had a good chat with the Shell engineer at Goodwood FOS about the i3. Range extender is... yep a petrol engine ...

 

[t-tony]

Don't see many Hybrid diesel engines do you.

Tony.

 

[Jack Ratt]

Don't see many Hybrid diesel engines do you.

Tony.

We used to have an old diesel Fiesta van that we used to push and tow nearly as much as we used to drive it, does that count

 

[t-tony]

About as much as my old Raleigh push-about moped mate. For the same reason. I even got f***ed by the Germans in those days when I think about it cos my mate Dave had an NSU Quickly!!

Tony.

 

[Redline]

Hydrogen fuel cell will be the long term solution. No doubt about that.

Yes - EVs have range anxiety attached to them. This is only an issue if you need long distances in one go. Most cars only do a handful of miles per day.
If you need to do long distances then hybrids will cover that. We can get 450+ miles at a reasonable speeds between refills.
True - battery capacity decreases over time.
However, I would treat having to ultimately replace them as an on going maintenance cost. Much less than engine replacement or major repair. If you’re on a full EV you only have the motor(s) as moving parts. They are pretty much maintenance free. Servicing costs are negligible. Brakes hardly get used.
These are the things that often don’t get pointed out. From the outset - Treat the batteries as consumables.

As far as the old batteries are concerned, all the original metals can be recovered and reused. It’s only the cells in the pack and not the whole pack itself.

So far we’ve saved over £500 fuel costs in 10 months and that’s on a hybrid over 10,000+ miles. Am often getting 550+ miles (on a 40L tank) between refills on mixed driving and logging 70mpg overall on a ratio of 30% battery mileage. Have got 260hp on tap, the first 80 is instantaneous, the rest as the engine spins up a fraction of a second later. Overtaking, even at motorway speed, is a breeze. 45mpg at above the legal limit is common.

This if F1 technology on the road. Try it. You might be surprised.

I wouldn’t discount EVs and hybrids on just a few issues. If you look at them in the round they have their place and distinct advantages in some areas.

Until you’ve lived with one I think it’s easy to just discount them.

Having said that, they’re not going to replace our Zeds any time soon.

 

[Robert Wiles]

Hydrogen fuel cell will be the long term solution. No doubt about that.

Yes - EVs have range anxiety attached to them. This is only an issue if you need long distances in one go. Most cars only do a handful of miles per day.
If you need to do long distances then hybrids will cover that. We can get 450+ miles at a reasonable speeds between refills.
True - battery capacity decreases over time.
However, I would treat having to ultimately replace them as an on going maintenance cost. Much less than engine replacement or major repair. If you’re on a full EV you only have the motor(s) as moving parts. They are pretty much maintenance free. Servicing costs are negligible. Brakes hardly get used.
These are the things that often don’t get pointed out. From the outset - Treat the batteries as consumables.

As far as the old batteries are concerned, all the original metals can be recovered and reused. It’s only the cells in the pack and not the whole pack itself.

So far we’ve saved over £500 fuel costs in 10 months and that’s on a hybrid over 10,000+ miles. Am often getting 550+ miles (on a 40L tank) between refills on mixed driving and logging 70mpg overall on a ratio of 30% battery mileage. Have got 260hp on tap, the first 80 is instantaneous, the rest as the engine spins up a fraction of a second later. Overtaking, even at motorway speed, is a breeze. 45mpg at above the legal limit is common.

This if F1 technology on the road. Try it. You might be surprised.

I wouldn’t discount EVs and hybrids on just a few issues. If you look at them in the round they have their place and distinct advantages in some areas.

Until you’ve lived with one I think it’s easy to just discount them.

Having said that, they’re not going to replace our Zeds any time soon.

Without a doubt hybrid technology, particularly self-charging, is the best alternative to pure internal combustion power at the moment. Until battery capacity, recharge rate and working life all increase significantly, I can't see a wholesale change to pure EVs

 

[Robert Wiles]

Just read some very interesting numbers regarding EV batteries. The International Energy Agency predicts that the global number of EVs will increase from 1 million now to 30 million by 2030. Apparently that would require an 800% increase in the tonnage of nickel and manganese extracted and a 150% increase in the quantity of cobalt in order to produce enough batteries. The increase in greenhouse gas emissions from the mining and transporatation of said minerals would be some 500%. Interestingly the IEA doesn't say how much this would be compared to the reduction in greenhouse gas emission from the increased use of EVs

Assuming that these numbers are somewhere near right, the ability to safely and economically recycle EV batteries will become an imperative. Currently the EU regulation is that just 50% of the weight of an EV battery must be recycled. Apparently this is not high enough to force the recycling of the most difficult to get at components, i.e. the minerals.

There's currently just one company in the world that has a patented hydrometalurgical recycling facility that can recover the rare metals on an industrial scale and it's in Finland. There's still an awful long way to go.....

 

[Redline]

Just read some very interesting numbers regarding EV batteries. The International Energy Agency predicts that the global number of EVs will increase from 1 million now to 30 million by 2030. Apparently that would require an 800% increase in the tonnage of nickel and manganese extracted and a 150% increase in the quantity of cobalt in order to produce enough batteries. The increase in greenhouse gas emissions from the mining and transporatation of said minerals would be some 500%. Interestingly the IEA doesn't say how much this would be compared to the reduction in greenhouse gas emission from the increased use of EVs

Assuming that these numbers are somewhere near right, the ability to safely and economically recycle EV batteries will become an imperative. Currently the EU regulation is that just 50% of the weight of an EV battery must be recycled. Apparently this is not high enough to force the recycling of the most difficult to get at components, i.e. the minerals.

There's currently just one company in the world that has a patented hydrometalurgical recycling facility that can recover the rare metals on an industrial scale and it's in Finland. There's still an awful long way to go.....

There will be money to be made from recycling. It will happen.

 

[andyglym]

Pure EV's could place significant strain on the energy market, supply and demand. It's not just a case of plugging it in and crack on, the energy comes from the utilities we currently have. 36 million cars, albeit staged over decades, would be a big strain. Hybrids/hydrogen etc may be the answer. We have one of the largest wind farms in the World off the south coast, that's only kicking out the same as one of aging Reactors at best. The infrastructure is huge.

 

[Redline]

Pure EV's could place significant strain on the energy market, supply and demand. It's not just a case of plugging it in and crack on, the energy comes from the utilities we currently have. 36 million cars, albeit staged over decades, would be a big strain. Hybrids/hydrogen etc may be the answer. We have one of the largest wind farms in the World off the south coast, that's only kicking out the same as one of aging Reactors at best. The infrastructure is huge.

You have a major point Andy. That too was my opinion for a long time.
But, the energy market is free market economics. It is their responsibility to react to a changing world.

Renewables are now meeting approx 50% of demand on average. Dinorwig can supply 30% of UK demand within 20 seconds but only for 20 minutes. But that's only part of the story.

Currently, the headroom on power generation to demand in the UK is often small but generally manageable. Despite increasing numbers of coal and nuclear stations being taken off-line, that headroom is being maintained. There is massive capacity over-night. Much of this is due entirely to the loss in UK PLC of power hungry industries such as steel making. We import lots from Norway and France too.

Many more stations are also due to go off-line in coming years. Doesn't sound promising....

Standardised nuclear reactor designs are the one of the answers to the current fall-off of supply versus the increasing domestic demand.
Shareholders will be asked for contributions to upgrade to satisfy demand or risk having their investment taken off them by nationalisation if they don't step up to the mark. Can't rake in the spondulicks in the good times and refuse to cough up when needed.

The average overnight domestic demand is between 30W and 100W. Compared to peak demand that is low, and it is also falling as people replace items for more efficient ones and as people learn to switch off things they don't actually need. I'n not a fan of Smart Metering, but, that technology does quickly show for example, that if you turn off a strip light, you save about 1pph. Not a lot, but 10 hours over 10 days, that's £1. It mounts up. Its quite easy to shave money off your bill. On top of that, SM in conjunction with differential tariffs (and items such as freezers etc) will support load-shedding for small periods. Indeed, its discussed that EVs can feed power back into the network on demand. There will be novel ways of getting the available infrastructure to spread further. The last thing we need is a full Black-start like recently experienced in South America.

There is another area that will have opportunities. Car manufacturers with the exception of Tesla have failed to get into the micro-generation and storage market. That's where the technology will be supplied to satisfy battery EV power demand on a household or local level. It can be done, but, you guessed, that uses the same lithium metals as the car batteries. Old, unusable EV systems can be redeployed to that job before being remanufactured.

Micro wind power (c600W) and solar roof tiles together with battery storage will supply enough energy to power most households for a good proportion of the day over a lot of the year. Heat recovery from waste water etc will add a little more. Recovery of ground heat will help but much harder to install.

This is all happening, much of it is hidden from all but a few of us, but is all at an embryonic stage. It isn't as simple as huge power stations feeding GWatts into the national grid any longer, but a distributed and autonomous network of power generation and management. The world is changing and it affects every bit of our lives, whether we know it or not.

 

[Robert Wiles]

Interesting point about smart metering. The tax revenue from petrol and diesel is huge and will have to be recovered in some manner as usage falls. Who would bet against SM being used as the method of taxing the electricity used to charge EVs via differential tariffs?

 

[Ianmc]

Looking at this in a different way, petrol has been powering motor vehicles for over 100 years. Efficiency of the fuel and internal combustion engines has, and continues, to improve significantly. Petrol is convenient (fill up in minutes and go). It will take a long, long time for its advantages to be replicated by another fuel.

 

[andyglym]

You have a major point Andy. That too was my opinion for a long time.
But, the energy market is free market economics. It is their responsibility to react to a changing world.

Renewables are now meeting approx 50% of demand on average. Dinorwig can supply 30% of UK demand within 20 seconds but only for 20 minutes. But that's only part of the story.

Currently, the headroom on power generation to demand in the UK is often small but generally manageable. Despite increasing numbers of coal and nuclear stations being taken off-line, that headroom is being maintained. There is massive capacity over-night. Much of this is due entirely to the loss in UK PLC of power hungry industries such as steel making. We import lots from Norway and France too.

Many more stations are also due to go off-line in coming years. Doesn't sound promising....

Standardised nuclear reactor designs are the one of the answers to the current fall-off of supply versus the increasing domestic demand.
Shareholders will be asked for contributions to upgrade to satisfy demand or risk having their investment taken off them by nationalisation if they don't step up to the mark. Can't rake in the spondulicks in the good times and refuse to cough up when needed.

The average overnight domestic demand is between 30W and 100W. Compared to peak demand that is low, and it is also falling as people replace items for more efficient ones and as people learn to switch off things they don't actually need. I'n not a fan of Smart Metering, but, that technology does quickly show for example, that if you turn off a strip light, you save about 1pph. Not a lot, but 10 hours over 10 days, that's £1. It mounts up. Its quite easy to shave money off your bill. On top of that, SM in conjunction with differential tariffs (and items such as freezers etc) will support load-shedding for small periods. Indeed, its discussed that EVs can feed power back into the network on demand. There will be novel ways of getting the available infrastructure to spread further. The last thing we need is a full Black-start like recently experienced in South America.

There is another area that will have opportunities. Car manufacturers with the exception of Tesla have failed to get into the micro-generation and storage market. That's where the technology will be supplied to satisfy battery EV power demand on a household or local level. It can be done, but, you guessed, that uses the same lithium metals as the car batteries. Old, unusable EV systems can be redeployed to that job before being remanufactured.

Micro wind power (c600W) and solar roof tiles together with battery storage will supply enough energy to power most households for a good proportion of the day over a lot of the year. Heat recovery from waste water etc will add a little more. Recovery of ground heat will help but much harder to install.

This is all happening, much of it is hidden from all but a few of us, but is all at an embryonic stage. It isn't as simple as huge power stations feeding GWatts into the national grid any longer, but a distributed and autonomous network of power generation and management. The world is changing and it affects every bit of our lives, whether we know it or not.

Renewables are certainly on the march but still a bit off being our main source of energy, though it can be done. The farm we live on has its own wind turbine and churns out enough electricity to not only power 2 houses but to pay the £1500 a quater dairy farm bill and put some into the grid. Win(d) win(d). They need to get a move on though as our AGR Fleet will be decommissioned in only a few years from now leaving only the PWR Reactors.

Mahoosive tax revenues from oil/fuel to pay the bills, that will need to be recouped from somewhere.

As usual we (the great and the good) will lag behind the curve though.

 

[pgunter]

Interesting reading the arguments from different perspectives. For one who deals in Acoustics there are several issues not covered.

Air source heat pumps are bloody noisy. And the rush to fit them has left a lot of cheap junk on the side of the road. Acoustic housings can be more than the cheap unit themselves. The technology also uses electricity for the pumps and fan units. So is not free. You also need a very well insulated property such as the TUV high rating. These pumps produce heating for the home at about 65-70c. Your gas boiler produces heating at about 80-85c. So a long way to go.

Wind turbines are known to produce a low frequency turbulence which is like a low beat. This upsets people’s normal living and makes for a very unpleasant living experience when you get a nodule point. Where the harmonica cross. It’s not great I can tell you. To put it in layman’s terms. It’s like a low beat that goes on and on.

So the rush to sustainable living to get juice for these EV’s is interesting. I looked at a hybrid and balanced it against the miles I do. Upwards of 35k a year and opted for a cleaner diesel Audi. Maybe in the future when the technology has gotten better I might switch. Until then ....

 

[andyglym]

Interesting reading the arguments from different perspectives. For one who deals in Acoustics there are several issues not covered.

Air source heat pumps are bloody noisy. And the rush to fit them has left a lot of cheap junk on the side of the road. Acoustic housings can be more than the cheap unit themselves. The technology also uses electricity for the pumps and fan units. So is not free. You also need a very well insulated property such as the TUV high rating. These pumps produce heating for the home at about 65-70c. Your gas boiler produces heating at about 80-85c. So a long way to go.

Wind turbines are known to produce a low frequency turbulence which is like a low beat. This upsets people’s normal living and makes for a very unpleasant living experience when you get a nodule point. Where the harmonica cross. It’s not great I can tell you. To put it in layman’s terms. It’s like a low beat that goes on and on.

So the rush to sustainable living to get juice for these EV’s is interesting. I looked at a hybrid and balanced it against the miles I do. Upwards of 35k a year and opted for a cleaner diesel Audi. Maybe in the future when the technology has gotten better I might switch. Until then ....

Interesting addition to the debate.

Stick one of these on your Audi and when you get to Cumbria you'll be doing 100mph all the way mate, gonna need bigger brakes though